Let’s stipulate that mere facts are not as exciting as a wildly spreading rumor/movement based on Pizzagate (and The Protocols of the Elders of Zion) involving a child-sex trafficking ring run by powerful, cannibalistic Satan-worshipping pedophiles. POTUS has a brand new talking point with an impressively authentic-sounding ring to it: unsolicited ballots.
An unfair election, says the president, will result from the millions of “unsolicited ballots” being mailed, in some states, to every registered voter. The resulting “rigged election” is the only way, he insists, that the most popular president in history can be robbed of his rightful second term. Massive fraud against Trump is the only way Trump can lose an election he won last time by a total of 78,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
It hurts me every time I hear a report on the president’s lying claim (tactfully reported as “baseless” or “false”) about widespread voter fraud that fails to cite the incidence of actual voter fraud in American elections. We sometimes hear that such fraud is rare, less than 1%.
What we almost never hear that the incidence of voter fraud in America is much, much, much less than
one ten-thousandth of one percent.
Math is confusing, I know. But the available facts show that for a fraud rate of anywhere close to 1% we’d have to multiply the proven rate of fraud (committed by partisans from both sides, mind you) by 10,000 or more. That’s really, really, really less than 1%.
A separate but related question: which political party, based on recent history, their claims about voting and their votes in every voting-related case, is more likely to engage in voter fraud? One party is seeking to make voting easier during a pandemic and to have every vote counted, the other party openly relies on a strategy of making sure as many opponents (‘enemy’ voters) as possible do not get to vote.
In 2016 there were 33,000,000 mail-in ballots, of the more than 138,000,000 votes cast. If every incident of 2016 voter fraud cited by the Koch-funded Heritage Foundation (62) had happened in mail-in ballots, and was committed by Democrats, the anti-Trump fraud rate would jump to an incidence of 1 in every 532,000 votes cast. 1/532,000 is nowhere near one percent (1/100), or a tenth of one percent (1/1000), or a hundredth of one percent (1/10,000). It would be measured in thousandths of a percent.
Why is it so hard to get this infinitesimally small number into the public “discussion” about an imaginary tsunami of voter fraud committed in the name of vicious pedophile cannibals?
Here’s an intelligent short reply to Mr. Trump’s lie about a rigged election (which does not trouble listeners with the microscopic rate of proven voter fraud):